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Boards have always governed under incomplete information. What the four indicator types offer is not more information but a progressively higher quality of it. Lagging indicators establish what happened, leading indicators signal direction, predictive indicators model possible futures, and reasoned indicators prove what is certain. Applied in combination to a single decision, they represent maximum fidelity — everything knowable and made available before the judgement is made. This article explains why the distinction between a decision made with maximum fidelity and one made without it matters for every director around the table.

Traditional ROI calculations capture the obvious: cost savings, faster processes, fewer errors. Yet AI’s most powerful returns often emerge much later, as cascading second and third-order effects transform capabilities, business models, and competitive position. In this article I explore how Boards can identify and measure these hidden gains using leading, lagging, and predictive indicators, while ensuring governance frameworks balance opportunity with risk.

Organisations are demanding disciplined, comprehensive business cases for AI initiatives that balance traditional financial rigour with frameworks capturing AI’s unique value creation patterns. In this fourth article in my series on AI business cases, I provide a step-by-step guide to building AI business cases that secure approval and set the foundation for successful implementation.

Building on my previous thoughts about why traditional business cases fail for AI investments, this article explores what I consider to be the essential building blocks for a more effective evaluation approach. This foundation provides boards with the tools to assess AI’s unique value creation patterns while maintaining financial discipline - helping leaders confidently navigate investment decisions that conventional models simply cannot adequately evaluate.

In my early years at Amazon Web Services (AWS), I created a tool for building cloud business cases that went beyond measuring just total cost of ownership and now forms the basis of our approach to costing migrations. I later co-authored the Cloud Value Framework (CVF) which focusses on measuring cloud value across four areas: cost optimisation, risk reduction, increased agility, and resource efficiency. So it should come as no surprise that I often get asked by Boards and the executives I meet “How do we decide if we should make an AI investment and how do we measure its ROI?”